THAILAND: Mills expect flat 2014/15 production despite more cane

May 6, 2015
Sugaronline | http://goo.gl/oIId6V

The Thai Millers Corporation (TSMC) said late Tuesday that while it estimates a higher volume of sugarcane will have been crushed when the 2014/15 crushing season ends this week, the final production figure will be flat on the year due to dry weather reducing the yield of commercial cane sugar (CCS), according to Platts.


TSMC chairman Sirivuth Siamphakdee told the Bangkok Post the total sugarcane crush had risen to 106 million tonnes in 2014/15 from 100 million metric tonnes in 2013/14 -- in line with Platts forecast in early April. 

But CCS -- the measure of sugar content in the cane -- is currently at 12.23 short tons/hectare for the current season, down from 12.56 a year ago. This puts the final production forecast for 2014/15 flat on the year at 11.3 million tonnes, despite the higher volume of cane.

"Since several parts of Thailand were hit by severe dry weather that destroyed sugar content in the cane, we have to bear higher production costs as we make less sugar with more sugar cane," Sirivuth told the newspaper.

The sugar cane crushing season is expected to draw to a close by the end of this week, with mills having wound down for the season. Based on the 106 million tonnes crushing figure, a Platts consensus pegged final production at 10-11% of the total volume crushed at around 11.2 million tonnes.

One Thai sugar trader told Platts the crushing process had exceeded his expectations. "We had the final production number at 9-10% of the total volume crushed, but now it is more like 10-11%," he said.

Sources said high temperatures had forced millers to increase the efficiency of the crushing process in recent weeks after high pressure from China lifted temperatures to a consistent 40 degrees Celsius in the northern and central regions.

Views on the effects of the hot weather varied from drying out the field which allowed better access to the crop, to it losing further quality in the heat.

But Platts was told crushing had already gone on longer than expected, with the process typically complete by the Thai New Year earlier in April.

Going forward, the TSMC said it plans to hold a workshop to educate the industry to boost both the crop for next year and the country's

competitiveness in the world market. A number of Australian analysts will speak, drawing on experience from a country with greater sugar production from a smaller crop volume relative to Thailand.

The TSMC was also reported as saying the Thai government has reserved 2.4 million tonnes of sugar for domestic consumption, with the rest available for export. Thai sugar exports were pegged at 7.3 million tonnes in 2014, up from 6.6 million tonnes in 2013.