March 25, 2015
Sugaronline | http://goo.gl/GDV0YY
Sugar prices recently dropped to their lowest level since 2009, and they're not likely to recover much from that level by the end of the year, according to MarketWatch.
With the market hit by a "global abundance of sugar," Capital Economics on Tuesday lowered its year-end price forecast for the commodity.
Capital Economics expects a year-end price of around 13.5 cents a pound for sugar, down from a previous forecast of 14.5 cents.
Futures prices for sugar settled as low as 12.62 cents a pound last week on the ICE Futures exchange - their lowest in about six years. They've tallied a loss of more than 85% over the past 5 years.
The world market is expected to see a fifth consecutive market surplus for the 2014/15 crop year, Capital Economics analyst Hamish Smith wrote in a note Tuesday, citing data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The glut of sugar has left world stocks at "historically high levels, with 2014/15 end-year stocks expected to be nearly 20% higher than the previous 10-year average," he said.
The fall in the value of the real currency in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, and a decision by India to reintroduce export subsidies have also contributed to sugar's recent declines, said Smith, noting that the real currency has fallen by more than 35% against the dollar over the past 12 months.
"The weak currency means Brazilian exporters have the ability to increase their competitiveness by lowering their dollar prices to gain market share, without undermining profit margins in the domestic currency," he said. That provides Brazilian sugar producers with an incentive to boost exports, he said.
However, with sugar prices so low, demand for ethanol has increased and that should help support sugar prices, said Smith.
"The falling price of sugar last year saw the share of cane processed for ethanol in Brazil's main Centre-South region reach 56.9% - the third highest level in the last 11 years," he said.