August 14, 2015
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Since June in Parana state, one of the states in Brazil’s Center-South region, the sugarcane has been flowering, but without formal registration data, according to industry association Alcopar, reports Platts.
The main areas so far affected were the north, reaching 30% on early cane grades, and ranging from 10% to 20% in early varieties in the central north and northwest of the state. The other regions were also flowering, but not as significantly, according to Alcopar.
When the cane flowers, sugarcane growth stops and begins a process known as "isoporizacao," which means "the cane becomes dry," sources said. Due to water loss, there is a reduction in density and weight of the cane; the loss in weight can reach 30% with high rates of flowering. Although the water loss does not decrease the amount of sugar in the cane, its extraction is very difficult and reduces the yield during the industrial process.
"I believe that more sugar goes to flowers and out of the cane itself; the flowers take the sucrose out of the cane in order to grow," said Maria Nunez, an analyst at Kingsman, an agriculture unit of Platts.
Flowering has been also observed in the largest producer state, Sao Paulo, a sugar trader said. It could also be above historical levels this season. A producer confirmed there are mills applying an inhibitor of flowering, though this is an expensive procedure, especially for mills with financial difficulties.
Last time that flowering hit the sugarcane fields in CS was in the 2011-2012 season. At that time, CS crushed 493.3 million mt of cane, down 11% compared with the previous season. However, the drop was mainly attributed to the dry weather in 2010, which hampered the seedling and the development of sugarcane.
Since the beginning of the season in April and up to the end of July, the total sugarcane crushed in CS reached 279.4 million mt, practically unchanged compared with same period last season at 280.4 million mt. Of that total, Parana crushed 19.2 million mt, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. Total sugar production amounted to 1.25 million mt, up 3.8% year on year, while total ethanol production this season amounted to 706.5 million liters, up 5.5% from last season.
Alcopar estimates for the 2015-2016 season showed that total cane crushed should reach 43.08 million mt, a slight decrease of 5% compared with the season before. However, with the recent slow pace on crushing due to rains in the first half of July, the total volume could be reduced at least by 3 million tons to be crushed next season, a Kingsman analyst said.
"We are revisiting our estimates, but we will only have a perception on how much we can crush when the rainy season starts in our region as of October," Alcopar said.
Kingsman estimates that total cane crushed this season in CS should reach 587 million mt, up 3% compared with 2014-2015 season.