October 8, 2015
Sugaronline | http://goo.gl/xmXHkm
Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the second half (2H) of September are expected to total 40.62 million metric tonnes, according tot a survey of analysts conducted Wednesday by Platts' Kingsman, an agriculture analysis unit of Platts.
The consensus estimate accounts for an average of 1.7 days of crush lost to rain.
Analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned 39.3 million tonnes to 43.7 million tonnes. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bi-monthly sugarcane harvest data in the upcoming days.
Platts' Kingsman analysts forecast the cane crush at 40.7 million tonnes and the total of recoverable sugar (ATR) would be 149.5 kg/tonne, up 0.24 kg/tonne from first half of September.
However, according to analysts surveyed, the peak of the ATR curve was already reached during the first two weeks of September at 149.26 kg/tonne, down 2.92kg/tonne from the peak reached on the past crop 2014/15 during the second half of September. That scenario was forecast in the previous Platts Pre-Report Survey, due to abnormal weather, flowering and the age of the cane.
In terms of ethanol production, the average of analysts' expectations pointed to total ethanol output of 2.040 billion liters, which would be an increase of 473 million liters compared with 2H September 2014.
Hydrous ethanol production was expected to reach 1.229 billion liters, up 31.90% year on year. If production proves as estimated, the accumulated hydrous production in Center-South will reach 12.703 billion liters, up 1.44 billion liters year on year.
2H September anhydrous output is expected to be 811 million liters, up 27.92% from the same period last year. The accumulated anhydrous production is expected to reach 7.50 billion liters, down 10.61% year on year. Brazilian drivers have been benefiting from lower hydrous prices at the pumps this season. Producers boosted hydrous production due to fast liquidity in the domestic market. In contrast, anhydrous production and demand decreased at levels to meet gasoline C in the domestic market. Gasoline C is a blend of gasoline A with 27% of anhydrous ethanol.
Hydrous sales in the domestic market during 2H September are expected to remain strong. This is because hydrous remains competitive at the pump in the main consumer states of the Center-South region, despite the recent hike in ex-mill hydrous prices.
In September, hydrous prices at the pump in the six largest state consumers averaged 63.6% of the gasoline price, compared with 63.9% in August and 67.9% in the same period last year, according to latest data from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). The six states represent about 85% of domestic demand and are in the key Center-South sugarcane region.
Wet weather in Center-South Brazil contributed to a lower than desired sugar mix which is expected to only slightly increase from the previous fortnight figures.
According to a Platts survey of analysts, the sugar mix in 2H September is expected to reach 41.93%, up 7.13 percentage points year on year.